Update in the manuscript
2012-05-19
Posted by: badanov
I am just hours away from finishing the transcription of the manuscript in toto.
At the moment, it appears the manuscript will net out at about 730 pages when formatted as a book.
When I originally did the manuscript, I figured it would net at out 450 pages, but nooo.
So,I have a decision to make. Cut mercilessly, which I will likely do in any case, or split he book into two parts. I will have to decide soon because I am looking at an August release date.
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Mexican Presidential Poll,May 15th
2012-05-18
Posted by:
Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
With less than seven weeks to go until the July 1st elections, Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) presidential candidate Enrique Pena Nieto continues to maintain a commanding lead over his nearest rival Partido Accion Nacional (PAN) presidential candidate Josefina Vazquez Mota by 20 percentage points, the same lead he has had since the start of the campaign March 30th, according to data supplied by an ISA-GEA poll published in Milenio news daily.
The political week started with a debate, and a national as well as international press distracted by the cleavage of a Mexican model for all of 15 seconds at the start of the debate. The week continued with barbs against Pena Nieto, especially with reference to his past associations with former president Carlos Salinas de Gortari, and PRI's response to those attacks.
Last week, just after a week of several unsettling press gaffes and strong, if disturbing indications of a campaign that is imploding, Vazquez Mota told reporters that internal polling placed her candidacy within ten percentage points of Pena Nieto. Her claim has some justification, since the polling done by PAN in the Michoacan elections was a more accurate reflection of how close that race was than news polls had indicated at the time.
Despite that seeming good news, leftist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador briefly overtook Vazquez Mota earlier in the week by less than two percentage points, only to slide back to third place. Despite that setback, Lopez Obrador continued to protest to his supporters that he would win, and by a comfortable margin.
When undecided voters are excluded by the polling, Pena Nieto continues to maintain a comfortable lead of slightly less than 15 percent, which he has held since the start. Still, Mexican undecided voters are the second largest block, as this writer has pointed out before, a possibly worrying trend for the frontrunner, albeit all the current undecided voters are unlikely to break for any one of the candidates.
In the two weeks before the next presidential debate it will be interesting to see if Pena Nieto and the PRI can maintain this lead all the way into the elections. So far he has been not only the candidate to beat but also has been comfortable enough in his lead to revert to the old PRI tactic of co-optation, in which the goal is to poach support from political rivals. 
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Yahoo! Big Story: The Cadereyta Massacre
2012-05-16
Posted by: badanov
My Borderland Beat story about the Cadereyta massacre was linked in Yahoo a few hours ago. Click the link in the title to see it.
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Cadereyta massacre was part of Los Zetas Mothers Day plot
2012-05-14
Posted by: badanov 
For a map, click here For a map of Nuevo Leon state, click here. For a map of Monterrey city, click here
By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
The 49 individuals found butchered on a remote section of highway east of Cadereyta, Nuevo Leon may have been the victims of a Los Zetas plot for a spectacular Mother's Day massacre, according information taken from Mexican press accounts, private emails and other sources.
Since late April the Los Zetas criminal gang has been under immense pressure from an alliance between the Gulf cartel, the Los Zetas' mortal rival and the Sinaloa drug cartel. That alliance was formalized sometime last year, and its existence was revealed following the capture of Victor Manuel Felix Felix in Tabasco state.
Victor Manuel Felix Felix is the brother in law to Sinaloa chief Joaquin Guzman Loera AKA El Chapo, and was also chief financial officer for the Sinaloa Cartel, as well as the Pacifico cartel. In Felix Felix's possession were documents which indicated that an alliance between the two groups had been formalized and that the Sinaloa Cartel and Gulf Cartel would combine their efforts to the east coast for the transshipment of drugs north to the United States.
That alliance was a formalization of what had already taken place in the fall of 2010, indicated by a fax sent to numerous Mexican news organizations which threatened 11 more car bombs like the one which was detonated in Zuazua, Nuevo Leon in December 2010 if authorities did nothing to stop Los Zetas' kidnapping operations in the state.
We now know that Los Zetas were during that time, indeed kidnapping bus passengers in Linares, which is in eastern Nuevo Leon and in San Fernando in central Tamaulipas state.
The San Fernando kidnappings and murders led to the discovery of one of the largest mass graves in modern Mexican history with a total of 193 individuals found dead in hidden mass graves in the spring and summer of 2011. Uncredited reports at the time said that Los Zetas hijacked buses, raped and killed female passengers and then held tournaments to see who would live to become shooters for Los Zetas and who would die.
Later news reports said that Los Zetas operatives in San Fernando became aware that the Gulf Cartel was bringing new shooters up from southern Mexico and that provided the impetus for the hijackings.
The increased pressure placed on Los Zetas came in late March of 2012, when as many as 13 individuals said to be Los Zetas were killed and dismembered, their body parts placed on display along with a narcomanta, which challenged Los Zetas leader Heriberto Lazcano Lazcano and Nuevo Laredo chief Miguel Treviño Morale AKA Z40. The message said, absurdly, that El Chapo would conduct a clean campaign to rid the city of Los Zetas.
It was later reported that the 13 dead were in fact not criminal gang members but random individuals who had been kidnapped and killed for the purpose of terrorizing local criminal groups.
Since that time, several similar events have taken place, most, though not all, in Nuevo Laredo, which is considered to be Los Zetas territory.
And Los Zetas have responded in kind, killing and butchering at least 10 individuals in Sinaloa state, the home turf for the Sinaloa cartel, as well as conducting their own operations in alliance with Beltran-Leyva and Juarez criminal groups against Sinaloa cartel groups in Choix, in the sierras of eastern Sinaloa state earlier in May. Those gunfights ended with 57 dead including 35 in intergang firefights.
In April, 14 unidentified individuals said to be members of Los Zetas were found in Nuevo Laredo, butchered and stuffed into an SUV, it said by Los Matazetas, said to be aligned with the Sinloa Cartel and based in Veracruz state.
These examples are only the ones Mexican press and private social media have been allowed to reveal to the pubic due to threats from criminal gangs. Indeed, it was not until almost 10 days after it took place that at least one US publication, the Houston Chronicle, has reported on the fight for Nuevo Laredo by mentioning the March massacre of Los Zetas operatives in Nuevo Laredo.
But it is apparently the find in Jalisco state five days ago of 18 individuals butchered and stuffed into two SUVs that information came out describing a spectacular plot for a massive Mother's Day massacre.
May 10th is traditionally Mothers Day in Mexico. In the United States, this year Mothers Day is May 13th.
According to a press account on the website of La Prensa news daily by reporter Elizabeth Ibal, two SUVs were found in Ixtlahuacan de los Membrillos municipality just south of Guadalajara city near the Querencias break leading to El Rancho Querencias with the bodies stuffed inside. A warning was left to El Chapo, which said, in part, that the dead were an example of what will happen to those who help the Sinaloa Cartel in Jalisco state.
Jalisco state underwent a change early last March when a Mexican Army detachment detained two of the remaining top leaders of the Jalisco Nuevo Generacion drug cartel, Erick Valencia Salazar, AKA El 85, and Nemesio Oseguera, AKA El Mencho.
Valencia Salazar was also the leader of the Matazetas group which first appeared in Mexican press reports in the fall of 2011, which at first was said to be a vigilante group independent of any drug cartel. That group was responsible for the murder of 35 individuals said to be members of the Los Zetas in Veracruz state. It was later reported that none of the 35 were affiliated with any criminal group,and were in fact innocents kidnapped to be used as grisly props.
The vacuum left by the troubles of Jalisco Nuevo Generacion appears to have allowed Los Zetas and their allies Milenio Cartel to fill vacuum in Jalsico state.
According to the report in La Prensa, a number of individuals had been kidnapped and held by this criminal alliance, 13 of which had escaped captivity.
An anonymous commenter on Borderland Beat ( for which this writer also writes) said on May 9th just after the news broke of the discovery of the 18 dead, said that the plan of the Zetas-Milenio group was for a massive and spectacular bloody Mothers Day massacre of their rivals. The rescued 13 individuals may have placed a crimp in those plans,and possibly led to the massacre in Nuevo Leon.
It is also possible that the Zetas-Milenio group already had set their plans in motion, and it is also possible Mexican security forces were unable to rescue other kidnapping victims in time.
There is no question that the victims in the Cadereyta massacre had been kidnapped from southern areas of Mexico and possibly originated south and central America. A Sunday morning report in Milenio news daily said as much. The attorney general of Nuevo Leon Adrian de la Garza stated that some of the dead were from other states, and a spokesman of the Nuevo Leon Secretaria de Seguridad Pública (SSP) stated that the dead had been killed at least 48 hours before their discovery, and had been transported, possibly by dump truck.
The narcomanta at the site, which was spray painted graffiti said 100 percent Zetas, a possible reference that the murders were done only by Los Zetas and not Milenio cartel members.
It was Los Zetas which killed 72 migrants in the summer of 2010 after the victims refused to pay tribute for passage. A Los Zetas criminal group was detained last month in northern Coahuila state along with several migrants. The upshot is that Los Zetas are involved in the passage of illegal immigrants into the United States. Its is likely that many of those were included in the dead in Cadereyta.
Borderland Beat reporter Chivis contributed to this report.
Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news for Ranturg.com
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6 die in shootout in Durango state
2012-05-12
Posted by: badanov
For a map, click here. For a map of Durango state, click here.
By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
A total of six unidentified armed suspects were killed in far western Durango state Friday according to Mexican news accounts.
In a Friday evening post on the website of El Siglo de Durango news daily, it was reported that six individuals were found dead in Pueblo Nuevo municipality in what is described as the aftermath of a shootout between rival drug gangs.
The shootout took place near the village of La Hierbabuena, which is on the Durango state border with Sinaloa state, roughly 25 kilometers west of El Rosario, Sinaloa.
According to the report, local officials have been to the area and have recovered the dead, but so far only one individual, Jesus Peinado, has been identified.
Army units with the Mexican III Military Region are said to be in the area.
Pueblo Nuevo was the location last year where nine unidentified individuals died in an intergang shootout. At the time, officials found two burned out vehicles and three men dressed in military uniforms, but no weapons, fuelling speculation that one side of the gunfight included members of Los Zetas.
Pueblo Nuevo is astride Mexico Federal Highway 40, which links the Sinaloa port city of Mazatlan with Durango, the capital of Durango state. That particular stretch of highway has recently been expanded to four lanes in a Mexican federal government effort to improve road nets between the west and east coasts.
Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news for Rantburg.com
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Police find 49 mutilated dead near Monterrey, Nuevo Leon: UPDATED II
2012-05-13
Posted by: badanov
For a map, click here. For a map of Nuevo Leon state, click here. For a map of Monterrey city, click here. This story will be updated and revised as more information becomes available. Updated: revised death toll. Updating with information on the message left at the scene.
By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
A total of 49 unidentified individuals were found dead early Sunday morning on a highway east of Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, according to Mexican news accounts.
According to a Sunday morning post on the website of Milenio news daily, the find was made at Kilometer 47 on Mexico Federal Highway 40,which leads to Reynosa, Tamaulipas. Police were dispatched to the area based on a telehpone call. Mexican Policia Federal agents were the first on the scene and found several black garbage bags containing the remains of 49 individuals. The actual location is 10 kilometers east of Cadereyta, near the village of San Juan. Cadereyta itself is about seven kilometers east of Monterrey.
Milenio reported late that six women and 43 men were among the dead. Previous reports had said a narcomanta left at the scene had been removed, but reportedly said "100 percent Zetas" Another Associated Press dispatched said that the victims were migrants heading to the United States. A late revised report on the website of Milenio said the some of the victims had the facial features of individuals from South America. The report also said the narcomanta had the symbol of Los Zetas only, probably the letter Z, suggesting Los Zetas likely committed the crime.
A late report from El Universal news daily quoted Jorge Domene, spokesman for the Nuevo Leon state Secretaria de Seguridad Pública (SSP), as saying that some of the victims had gang tattoos, suggesting the deaths were a settling of accounts between gangs. He also said that most of the victims had been killed two days prior to their discovery.
Nuevo Leon attorney general Adrian de la Garza said that that he has reports of a sudden increase of abductions in the area.
Some of the bodies left at the scene were already in a state of decomposition. The report also said spent shell casings were found at the scene, suggesting some of the victims were killed at the scene. He also said some of the remains were dusty, and theorized the dead may have been transported to the scene in a dump truck.
The municipality of Cadereyta-Jiminez is at the terminus of a bypass from Mexico Federal Highway 85 -- which goes to Monterrey proper -- to the east of Monterrey. The road starts in Allende. The area around the intersection in Cadereya has been the scene of several shootouts between Mexican security forces and drug cartels gangs which operate in the area.
Recent similar bloody incidents have taken place in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas, essentially the home of Los Zetas drug cartel in which members from both the Los Zetas and gangs affiliated with the Gulf and Sinaloa Cartels have have killed and mutilated the bodies of their rivals in grisly fashion.
El Excelsior news daily reported that the highway, closed since about 0400, was reopened at about 1000 hrs.
Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news for Rantburg.com
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Bad guys hit newspaper office in Nuevo Laredo with grenades
2012-05-13
Posted by: badanov
For a map, click here. For a map of Tamaulipas state, click here
By Chris Covert
Ranburg.com
A newspaper office was attacked with small arms and hand grenades last Friday night in the Mexican border city of Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state, according to Mexican news and Twitter accounts.
According to a web posting Sunday morning by El Universal news daily, the offices of El Manana was attacked at around 2300 hrs Friday by armed suspects. The firing last five minutes.
No one was reported hurt in the attack and damage was limited to the walls of the building and nearby parked cars. The armed suspects committing the attack then left a blanket painted with a message, the contents of which were not disclosed in news accounts.
Blankets painted with messages are colloquially known as narcopintas or narcomantas, depending on the area of Mexico they are found. The contents are often claims and threats, which in most cases are not considered credible. However, those messages are the drug cartels' most effective means of mass communication with the broader citizenry.
Nuevo Laredo is in the grip of a deadly competition between Los Zetas drug gang, of which Nuevo Laredo is considered to be their home turf and the Sinaloa and Gulf cartels, which have vowed to end Los Zetas' dominance in the city.
Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news for Rantburg.com
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Mexican Political Notebook: May 14th
2012-05-14
Posted by: badanov
For a map, click here
By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
The Mexican presidential campaign week began with at least international press atwitter about the appearance of Playboy Playmate Julia Orayen who appeared on stage just prior to the start to hand out placards to determine the order of debate of the candidates for all of 15 seconds.
Her appearance reportedly set off a trending topic on Twitter ranging between 3rd and 4th of all topics.
This writer watched trending topics as well following the debate, but did not notice Ms. Orayen's name or references to her in any trending topic during the date, but it was hard to miss her the following day as international press wire claims, absurdly, that the model stole the show.
And of course without missing a beat, feminist sympathizers tried to write the appearance off as the "hyper-sexualization of Mexican women." This writer missed something because what I saw was a willing young woman dressed in revealing clothing. I was not under the impression her arm was twisted to make the appearance, nor she had stolen anything but a few glances.
The rest of the political week was spent with the respective camps spinning their candidate reactions to questions posed by Mexican citizens and to responses.
Last Wednesday, the camp of Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) candidate Enrique Pena Pieto responded to leftist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to the charge of almost MX $1 billion (USD $73,782,800) spent by Pena Nieto of self promotion in his first year as governor of Mexico state. The response was a countercharge that while head of government of Distrito Federal, Lopez Obrador himself spent MX $674,125 (USD $49,729,607) between December 2000 and June 2005 on personal communications.
Lopez Obrador responded to Mexican journalist Aristegui Carmen in a radio interview that his administration spent less than MX $1 billion during his tenure.
- In 2001 MX $148 million (USD $10,919,854.40).
- In 2002, MX $149 million (USD $10,993,637.20)
- In 2003, MX $72.9 million (USD $5,378,766.12).
- In 2004, MX $92.2 millones (USD $6,802,774.16).
- In 2005, MX $93.3 million (USD $6,883,935.24).
He added that if the PRI figures are true he will renounce his candidacy, adding Pena Nieto should renounce his because Lopez Obrador's figures are correct.
Meanwhile, Partido Accion Nacional (PAN) candidate Josefina Vazquez Mota promise while in Guerrero state Wednesday that she will press for as parental responsibility law that will provide for monetary child support for unwed mothers.
Vazquez Mota spent the days following the debate dodging charges during a radio interview/talk program called Third Degree, in which she was questioned about the inclusion of Juan Molinar in her campaign. The subtext of the question was her support for families in such proposals as the parental responsibility law is in contrast to the inclusion of Molinar in her campaign.
Molinar is a PAN politician who was president Felipe Calderon Hinojosa's director of Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, or Mexico's Social Security agency when the ABC daycare fire took place in Hermosillo, Sonora. That fire took the lives of 49 children, most of them under the age of four. Molinar resigned from IMSS as a result of the investigation.
Vazquez Mota weakly told the panel that the inclusion of Molinar was not her idea. She shifted the blame to PAN president Gustavo Madero Munoz. Madero has not responded to the interview to date.
In the last part of the week,responding to polls which now place her in third place behind Lopez Obrador, she attacked her next rival, Gabriel Quadri as being a part of s system that allows " education chiefdoms" as she put it, which she vowed to end as president. Quadri's party, Partido Nueva Alianza (PANAL) founder is teacher's union president Elba Esther Gordillo.
The most harrowing experience of the week for a Mexican presidential candidate has to go to Pena Nieto who went to the Universidad Iberoamericana Thursday to give a talk to students.
In a posting to its website, El Sol de Mexico reported that Pena Nieto managed to "...overcome questions about his relationship with former President of Mexico, Carlos Salinas de Gortari, the leader of the teachers union, Esther Gordillo, and his management as governor of the State of Mexico."
The actual exchange was much, much worse than that, because Pena Nieto faced a raucous and unhappy crowd of students who continually hammered Pena Nieto for his actions in the earliest weeks of his administration in Mexico state in 2006.
Students shouted "murderer" at the PRI candidate, referring to the two protesters who were killed by Pena Nieto's security forces in an action to end a blockade that was started to stop a new airport project from beginning. The issue was land expropriation by the state government, which would have presumably placed several local flower vendors out of business.
The engagement was so out of control that PRI president Pedro Coldwell suggested that the incident be investigated. Universidad Iberoamericana is Vazquez Mota's alma mater.
The big question coming out of that is why Pena Nieto would walk into such a firestorm in the first place. The answer may well lie in the one area that both PAN and PRI agree on, law and order.
Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political new for Rantburg.com
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Cadereyta Mothers Day Massacre
2012-05-15
Posted by: badanov
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May 11th Mexican Drug War Pr0n
2012-05-12
Posted by: badanov
The photo is of a Tamaulipas state police operative with a G36 5.56mm assault rifle with a folding stock, and what appears to be plain iron sights and a translucent plastic magazine.
See photo here
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8 bad guys die in Zacatecas
2012-05-06
Posted by: badanov
For a map, click here. For a map of Zacatecas state, click here
By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
A total of eight armed suspects died in an armed encounter in Jerez municipality in Zacatecas state early Saturday morning, according to Mexican news sources.
The pursuit and gunfire began at around 0130 hrs, according to a news item posted on the website of the El Sol de Mexico news daily, in Fovissste and Niños Heroes colonies with stray rounds hitting in Francisco GarcÃa Salinas colony.
Additionally, individuals aboard an SUV fired weapons, and a grenade was detonated which resulted in a burned vehicle. NTR Zacatecas news daily in a report posted on its website said the vehicle was a Nissan Tiida. A separate report posted by Zacatecas en Linea news daily said that two of the dead were immolated when the vehicle was struck by a grenade.
In the aftermath, undisclosed numbers of weapons and one grenade were found at the scene by Mexican Army road patrols dispatched to the area. Spent shell casings numbering into the hundreds were reportedly found in the area where the gunfight ended.
The Zacatecas en Linea report also said that the confrontation was probably between Los Zetas and Gulf cartel shooters.
According to a news item posted on its website on El Sol de Zacatecas news daily, an earlier attack in Jerez took place on the afternoon of April 30th when a group of armed suspects fired their weapons in a residence in Las Huertas colony near Zona Centro of the municipality.
In that incident, the homeowner returned fire. No reports were received about injuries from the gunfire, and the homeowner reportedly fled the city with his family, abandoning the two story building.
A separate report from the website of Zacatecas en Linea said that an earlier exchange of gunfire took place nearby where the residence was attacked. Reports were of gunfire that had spread to other parts of the colony. That report also said that rival criminal gangs had exchanged gunfire in the area.
Gunfire was also heard in Jerez last April 28th in Alameda colony, which is east of Federal Highway 23.
Jerez, whose official name is Jerez de Garcia Salina, sits astride Mexico Federal Highway 23, roughly 40 kilometers south of Fresnillo and 25 kilometers southwest of Zacatecas, the capital of Zacatecas state.
Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news for Rantburg.com
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Mexican Army deploy 600 troops to Choix, Sinaloa
2012-05-07
Posted by: badanov
For a map, click here
By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
The Mexican Army has deployed 300 troops in the Sinaloa municipality of Choix with 300 more scheduled to deploy in the coming days as army troops move into the area in the aftermath of some of the bloodiest fighting in the Mexican Drug War to date, according to Mexican news reports.
While the total death toll after more than a week of fighting amongst Mexican security forces and an amalgam of criminal gangs is 22, according to data provided by the Sinaloa Fiscalia General de Estado (FGE) or attorney general Marco Antonio Higuera Gomez, the article posted by El Debate news daily website hinted the death toll is likely much higher.
This writer counted the dead at 57, including 13 in Guasave municipality near the Pacific coast of Sinaloa and several others in nearby municipalities including El Fuerte. Mexican press reported villagers claiming a number of others were left for dead by criminal groups and are now decomposing in the extreme summer heat of the Mexican Sierra Madres. For example, Urique municipality in Chihuahua state just across the border recorded a high temperature of 46C (114.8F) last week.
In Choix proper where the bulk of the fighting took place, the death toll by this author's count is 32. The count should be higher but for some criminal groups' tendency, most notably Los Zetas, to remove their dead to prevent security forces and rival gangs from gaining intelligence.
According to the article, refugees from Choix have been filtering down to the west, ending up in El Fuerte, which is only about 20 kilometers southwest of Choix municipal seat along Sinaloa State Highway 32. Other villages reporting refugees from the eastern part of Choix include Chinobampo, which is directly south of the battle area, and a village called Montoya. Those villages report 70 families have fled the mountains in Choix. Other have moved completely out of the mountains to coastal municipalities such as Mazatlan.
In El Fuerte municipality, El Debate reported 25 families have fled from the villages of La CofradÃa, Sabino Cuate, El Platanito and El Pantano seeking shelter in El Fuerte municipality seat.
The causes of the fighting according to El Debate is a move by the Sinaloa Drug Cartel to eliminate Beltran-Leyva criminal groups operating in the area.
The possibility also exists that Choix, sitting astride the only mountain pass between Sinaloa state and Chihuahua state without a major highway, was a logical place to stop Los Zetas infiltration into Sinaloa.
Recent fighting between Sinaloa affiliated groups in the Los Zetas home turf of Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas has caused Los Zetas operatives to respond in kind in Sinaloa state. Having an ally of their bitterest rival controlling a major mountain pass for the movement of drugs, guns and operatives may have been a risk the Sinaloa Cartel wanted to eliminate.
What makes the fighting so unusual is the sheer number of different groups which came to the aid of the Beltran-Leyva group including Los Zetas and Los Aztecas, both gangs aligned with the Juarez Cartel.
Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news for Rantburg.com
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1st Mexican presidential debate of 2012 concludes
2012-05-07
Posted by: badanov
I watched the whole debate on Milenio.com which streamed it live, but gained most of the data from twitter feeds, mainly from AnimalPolitco.com and ElImparcial.com
By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
The first debate among the four candidate for president of the republic of Mexico ended Sunday evening as frontrunner Partido Revolucionario Institucional(PRI) candidate Enrique Pena Nieto fended off barbs from his two closest, if remote rivals.
The debate followed the pattern of a series of subject areas including Economics and Employment, Justice, and Social Development and Sustainable Development. The debate was sponsored by the Mexican Instituto Federal Electoral (IFE) and hosted and moderated by Guadalupe Juarez.
Pena Nieto spent several instances fending off barbs from leftist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador over PRI's past by showing photographs of Pena Nieto with PRI politicians, notably Carlos Salinas de Gortari who served as president from 1988 to 1994.
Lopez Obrador seemed to play the role of spoiler in the debate, hammering on Pena Nieto and his PRI party for what he said was an economic crisis that began during the Salinas administration. He charged that PRI had spent decades trafficking in the people's poverty, a double entendre meant to subtly link PRI with statements made in the recent past that PRI governors had been in collusion with drug traffickers. He also charged that because of the Salinas government, Mexico has "opulence in the midst of poverty."
Partido Accion Nacional candidate Josefina Vazquez Mota seemingly bided her time in the debate, putting forth several proposals such as the formation of a National Police with "military discipline", and life imprisonment for officials found to be in collusion with organized crime.
Pena Nieto, however, made economic proposals that made him sound like he was the PAN candidate, wanting structural change to make Mexican more competitive and approving the flat tax, already in existence through the offices of PAN presidents. Vazquez Mota added her proposal for a development bank for loans to medium and small enterprises.
Lopez Obrador explained in speeches just before the debates his intent to scrap the Mexican flat tax, to raise taxes, and to redistribute the proceeds to the poor. That proposal was never mentioned by Lopez Obrador in the debate mainly because he spent so much energy hammering away at Pena Nieto on his record as governor of Mexico state and his party, the PRI.
Among those gems was his contention that the return of the PRI to Los Pinos, the Mexican president's official residence, would be like the return of Santa Ana, and would "destroy everything." Another charge was that Pena Nieto spent MX $600 million (USD $45,193,680) on self promotion his first year as governor of Mexico state.
Pena Nieto was far from helpless, however. He countered against Lopez Obrador reminding viewers of Julio Cesar Godoy, the disgraced Partido Revolucion Democatica (PRD) federal deputy, and by telling Lopez Obrador, subtly reminding him of how far back he is in the polls: "If television made presidents, you would be president."
Vazquez Mota managed to get in a few charges herself by reminding viewers that the disgraced former president of PRI, Humberto Moreira's treasurer is a federal fugitive in both Mexico and the United States. She was referring to disgraced Coahuila state tax collector Javier Villarreal Hernandez. Under electoral rules, Pena Nieto does not have to respond and he didn't.
One amusing incident was when Vazquez Mota thanked the moderator using the personal "Lupita" when naming the telegenic moderator. A few Mexican journalists wagged on Twitter during the debate asking "Can we vote for Lupita?"
Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news fro Rantburg.com
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Mexican Political Notebook: May 8th
2012-05-08
Posted by: badanov
For a map click here
By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
Pretty much the entire week was the lead in for Sunday's presidential debate among the four candidates as the campaign visits stopped and candidates prepared.
Three of the four candidates have trailed Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) frontrunner Enrique Pena Nieto by double digits since last week, according to polling data supplied by Milenio news daily.
But not all was going swimmingly for Pena Nieto. There are signs that enthusiasm for his candidacy is starting to wane. A news article by El Imparcial news daily showed a photo of a Day of the Child rally April 30th in Distrito Federal where empty seats could be seen were inside the tent holding the campaign event. This is an area where enthusiasm for Pena Nieto should be the highest.
The caveat is that Sonora state, home of El Imparcial, is a Partido Accion Nacional (PAN) state with PAN governor Guillermo Padres Elias presiding, and is likely to accentuate travails by PRI politicians. Even so, the empty events with all the undecided voters should be a worrying trend for Pena Nieto.
PAN presidential candidate Josefina Vazquez Mota ran into some difficulty as well during Day of the Child celebrations, when she tried to visit a children's hospital in Distrito Federal. A story in El Diario de Coahuila news daily related the complaints of a retired electrician where security concerns for Vazquez Mota's visit disrupted the hospital's normal functioning.
To the daily's credit, the retiree was identified as a member of the pro Partido Revolucion Democratica (PRD) Sindicato Mexicano de Electricistas (SME) or electrician's union. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's leftist coalition is headed up by the PRD.
A 12 minute scuffle broke out at Mexico City's Hotel Hilton Alameda where Lopez Obrador appeared at a campaign event on behalf of Miguel Angel Mancera, PRD candidate for president of Distrito Federal. Lopez Orbador was to give a talk about his redorm proposals concerning PEMEX, the Mexican government-owned oil company.
A man identifying himself as a reporter for a San Antonio,Texas media outlet, Rodolfo Macias, began screaming at Lopez Obrador, complaining about former PRI president Carlos Salinas de Gortari.
The reference to Salinas de Gortari is significant because he was elected president of the republic in 1988, the same year that then-PRI president of Tabasco state Lopez Orbador resigned to start the PRD.
Apparently the shouting match last 12 minutes as Lopez Obrador supporters tried to move Macias out of the event, when Lopez Obrador's bodyguards finally appeared.
Meanwhile, last Wednesday Vazquez Mota announced that according to internal polling she was within 10 percentage points of Pena Nieto, not 20 points as most polls were showing.
Vazquez Mota has a point. During the Michoacan gubernatorial elections, PAN president Gustavo Madero Munoz continued to tell media outlets that the polls were much, much closer than were actually reported, and as it turned out, while PAN failed to capture Michoacan, the margin of victory for PRI candidate Fausto Vallejo was about 42,000 votes, well below what PRI and its media allies had said at the time would be razor thin.
PAN politician and former finance minister under Mexican president Felipe Calderon, Ernesto Cordero gave a presentation last Wednesday that was tweeted by AnimalPolitico.com in which he put forth the case for PAN candidate Vazquez Mota and a return to Los Pinos for PAN.
Cordero's case rested primarily on economics. He told the audience of journalists that PRI's portrayal of PAN economic policies as hurting average Mexicans was not true.
For example, he told the gathering that the percentage of Mexicans in dire poverty went from 15 percent to five percent under PAN government. He also said that accumulated inflation in the 1980s under successive PRI administrations was 15,000 percent, while under PAN it was 55 percent. And as for reforms, he complained that PRI's strategy in the last two years has been to obstruct reforms in the PRI-controlled Chamber of Deputies for baldly political reasons, allowing PRI to claim lack of progress that they themselves were causing.
He also criticized PRI for its failure to deal effectively with criticism, stating that PAN deals with it as helpful advice to improving society, but PRI does not.
One reporter helpfully asked Cordero if he knew the prices of common items such as the costs of a ride on the Mexico City subway and of a kilogram of tortillas. Unlike the other three main candidate, he said he knew but would not tell the reporter.
That exchange impelled this writer to tweet Animal Politico if they had treated the PRI the same as Cordero and PAN. I did not get a reply.
Lastly, the time just prior to the debates, PAN received the news that spot ads linking PRI to disgraced former PRI president Humberto Moreria Valdes and his Coahuila state former tax collector and federal fugitive, Javier Villarreal Hernendez would not be permitted by the Instituto Federal Electoral (IFE).
Instead, PAN politicians in Coahuila held at least one "mega-debt" rally to bring focus on the issue of massive debt contracted by states run by PRI governors, including Pena Nieto's home state of Mexico.
Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news for Rantburg.com.
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Mexican Presidential Poll, May 8th
2012-05-08
Posted by: badanov
For a map, click here
By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
With less than seven weeks remaining in the campaign for Mexican president of the republic, the race amongst the three top candidate has slightly tightened, according to data supplied by the Milenio news daily.
Not counting undecided voters, Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) presidential candidate Enrique Pena Nieto still maintains a commanding lead over his nearest rival Partido Accion Nacional (PAN) presidential candidate Josefina Vazquez Mota with 46.9 percent of voters against 27 percent for Vazquez Mota.
Leftist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador also raised his position, tightening the margin between himself and Vazquez Mota with 24.3 percent.
When taking into account undecided voters, Vazquez Mota is less than 15 percentage points away from Pena Nieto with 35.8 percent to 20.7 percent. Lopez Obrador trails slightly at 18.5 percent.
Frontrunner Pena Nieto has to be worried at this point. The second largest block of voters are still undecided voters with 23.6 percent, slightly smaller than a week ago, but still indicative that voters may not make their final decision until they are queued up to vote July 1st.
Even so, Vazquez Mota protested last week that PAN polls show her within ten percentage points of Pena Nieto. Recent history has shown that PAN polling is more accurate than public polls, the most relevant example being the Michoacan gubernatorial race last November where PRI's margin of victory was much thinner than predicted.
The tightening of the race between Pena Nieto and Vazquez Mota may well be the result of a lessening of enthusiasm for the PRI candidate and the combined efforts of PAN's star line up, which includes PAN president Gustavo Madero and former finance minister Ernesto Cordero. Both were featured in different campaign events last week, trying to draw distinctions between the two parties and laying out the case for a third term for PAN politicians.
The case for management of the Mexican economy with a PAN leader at the helm is compelling, given that PRI governors, including Pena Nieto have demonstrated a dreadfully poor sense of public resource stewardship, especially in the light of the recent Coahuila debt scandal. That scandal has resulted in several convictions and several former Coahuila state employees becoming fugitives from justice.
Oddly, the one politician not included among those regarded as complicit in the scandal was former Coauila governor and PRI president Humberto Moreira Valdes, who is currently in Texas, it is said, working to get a master's degree.
As this writer has quipped in the past, a master's in public finance for Moreira can be ruled out.
Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news for Rantburg.com
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Death in Durango: 7 die
2012-05-11
Posted by: badanov
For a map, click here. For a map of Durango state, click here
By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
An unidentified Mexican Army lieutenant colonel was found shot to death in sierras of Santiago Papasquiaro Wednesday morning, according to a news item on the website of El Siglo de Durango Thursday evening.
The victim was tentatively identified as Lt. Colonel Felipe Villalobos, said to be a member of Mexico's elite Grupo Aeromovil de Fuerzas Especiales (GAFE) special forces group. Reports say the local municipality government have already declared their incompetence in the case kicking it over to military jurisdiction. The declaration is pro forma since no civilians are presumably involved in the shooting.
The report also said that another unidentified soldier was being investigated for his role in the death of the colonel.
According to a post on the website of El Contexto de Durango news daily, six individuals including two women, said to be affiliated with Los Zetas criminal group, were detained at a traffic stop in Santiago Papasquiaro Thursday in the Las Quebradas region.
Durango state police agents from at least two separate agencies stopped six individuals travelling aboard a Chevrolet Malibu sedan on Bulevar Armando del Castillo Franco in CNOP colony. The driver of the vehicle attempted to initiate a pursuit, but was stopped
The stop netted one AK-47 rifle, one .38 caliber Super pistol, 37 packages of powder cocaine divided and wrapped for retail sale, 16.5 kilograms of marijuana, about one kilograms of unprocessed marijuana, 38 small packages of marijuana divided and wrapped for retail sale weighing a total of 2.1 kilograms, 14 rounds of 7.62x39mm ammunition for the AK-47 rifle and the sedan.
The detainees were identified as Hector Fidel Corral AKA El TetÃn, 23, Jesus Gutierrez Gomez AKA El Pelon, Maria Laura Dominguez Quiñonez 21, Norma Elizabeth Lopez Palafox, 30, José Alejandro Amaya Amado, 29 and José Sergio Hernandez Monarrez AKA El Capter, 18.
Six other individuals were found dead in Durango state.
- An unidentified man in his 30s was found beaten to death in Durango municipality Wednesday morning by Durango state police agents. The victim was found on the road between Hacienda La Martinica and the village of Pilar de Zaragoza.
- The Durango Fiscalia General de Estado, or attorney general, said that a man found shot to death in his residence April 30th has been identified as Alfredo Rincon Quiñones, 65. The victim was found in the village of Ignacio Zaragoza in Coneto de Comonfort municipality. The victim was shot as many as four times with an AR-15 rifle.
- The Durango Fiscalia General de Estado said that two men who disappeared April 29th and were later found dead near Guadalupe Victoria dam April 30th have been identified. Mateo Mancinas Gonzalez, 24, and Jorge Luis Mancinas Guerrero, 22, were both from Buenavista colony, in the village of El Salto, in Pueblo Nuevo municipality.
- A man was found shot to death in Santiago Papasquiaro near the village of El Atascadero Wednesday. The victim was identified as Pedro Contreras Segovia, 55, a resident of Santiago Papasquiaro city. The victim had been shot once in the chest.
- A man was found beaten to death in Santiago Papsquiaro municipality Wednesday. Ramon Jimenez de la Cruz, 44, had been missing since last Saturday. He was found near the village of Santa Teresa on Francisco Zarco road.
Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news for Rantburg.com
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Peggy Noonan II
2012-05-09
Posted by: badanov
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Update on the Choix, Sinaloa gunfights: 20 dead
2012-05-01
Posted by: badanov
For a map, click here Updated from Sunday. With additional information from Nota Roja Updated from Sunday's report which can be found here
By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
A total of 20 individuals were killed in two separate gunfights in the far northeastern Sinaloa state municipality of Choix Saturday and Sunday, according to Mexican news accounts.
Earlier reports of as many as 50 dead armed suspects have been officially discounted. The latest news is that Mexican security forces including Mexican Army and Sinaloa state police forces are still in the area.
The first encounter took place early Saturday morning at around 0200 hrs near the village of Yecorato, where soldiers fought armed suspects, killing six. A Mexican Army news release from a command element with the 9th Military Zone said the unit was on patrol in Rancho El Carrizo when the battle commenced. The location was reportedly between the villages of San Simon and Yecorato.
One unidentified Mexican Air Force non-commissioned officer, presumably serving as an observer aboard a Mexican Air Force helicopter was hit by gunfire, but later died in a local hospital.
In the encounter one army officer and one enlisted rifleman were wounded and evacuated from the area by military helicopter. Unofficial reports at the time were that a Mexican Air Force helicopter had been shot down by ground fire, but later news reports said the Mexican Air Force bird had been hit but was operable. At least two reports say as many as three Mexican Air Force helicopters, probably Bell 206s, were involved in the operation including as observation platforms. The helicopter which had been hit was one of the birds that had been called in by one detail commander to provide air support.
According to several accounts, the Mexican Army unit on Saturday had been fired on by one of two armed groups which were fighting one another in the area. Although none of the groups have yet to be officially identified, one of the criminal groups is said to be a ground element of the Beltra-Leyva drug cartel. The area is considered to be Beltran-Leyva cartel territory, and is also a location where drugs are cultivated.
Saturday ended with a total of 11 dead, including nine unidentified armed suspects, one unidentified Mexican Air Force NCO and a Choix municipal police agent identified as Hector Ruiz Villar, 43.
By 1930 hrs Sunday, nine more dead were reportedly evacuated from the battle area, which had extended to a village named Los Carricitos. Included in the death toll was one Mexican army soldier who died from his wounds after being evacuated by air. Reports say that several more dead had been recovered by criminal groups in the area, so the death toll is likely much higher than the official death number.
Some Mexican armed criminal groups, most notably Los Zetas, make a practice of recovering their dead in the aftermath of battle to prevent security forces and rival armed groups from gaining intelligence on their group.
Materiel seized in the aftermath of the first encounter included five AK-47 rifles, one .50 caliber Barrett rifle, 36 weapons magazines for AK-47, four disc magazines for AK-47, one Barrett weapons magazine, four rifles, 1,500 rounds of AK-47 ammunition, 28 rounds of .22 caliber ammunition, five .45 caliber rounds of ammunition, one fragmentary hand grenade (pineapple style) and six weapons magazines.
In Sunday's encounter, materiel recovered included 12 rifles, four handguns, 2,158 rounds of ammunition and 67 weapons magazines.
Reports also say that an armed group had dug in in the mountains, having shifted forces to relieve fighters presumably exhausted from fighting Saturday and Sunday.
Last reports say the Mexican Army and Sinaloa state police forces were still in the area to prevent criminal groups from coming down from the mountains and demanding tribute from local residents. Sinaloa, Chihuahua and Durango states are all in the throes of a severe drought which has affected subsistence crops as well as drug crops. The drought is expected to adversely affect indigent farmers' health as the spring and summer months wear on.
A report published in an online edition of El Diario, Mexican naval infantry (Marinos) units have also been dispatched to the area as well. The report also said that a military unit has moved into the village of Casas Viejas in Choix, and that security operations are into their third day
Drug cartels treat indigent farmers in the Mexican Sierras like medieval serfs, using threats of arson and murder to force them to grow drug cash crops.
The area where the fighting took place has the only "break" to the eastern part of Choix municipality which borders Chihuahua state to the east. The area is occupied by armed cartel groups.
In another late report published in an online edition of El Diario, western zone Fiscalia General del Estado, or district attorney general of the state, Jesus Chavez Saenz and commander of the Chihuahua state Policia Ministerial Investigadora Leonardo Calzada, announced that their offices have been placed on high alert owing to what is described as the "cockroach effect", presumably where armed groups will scatter into Chihuahua state following an adverse encounter with security forces.
The report also added that Mexican Army units in western Chihuahua state also routinely patrol the approaches to the border area.
Far western Chihuahua state has its own problems dealing with what has been termed in Mexican leftist press as a structural famine and the accompanying drought, as well as criminal groups operating in the area.
Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news for Rantburg.com
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Mexican Presidential Poll, May 1st
2012-05-01
Posted by: badanov
For a map, click here
By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
With one third of the campaign period expiring and two months to go Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) presidential candidate Enrique Pena Nieto appears to be on a comfortable glide path to victory for Mexican president of the republic according to polling data supplied by Milenio news daily.
Leaving out undecided voters, Pena Nieto has a commanding 53.8 percent of voter's preferences compared to his nearest rival, Partido Accion Nacional (PAN) candidate Josefina Vazquez Mota with 25.5 percent and leftist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador with 18.4 percent.
When compared to totals from just three and four weeks ago, Pena Nieto appears to have extended his already commanding lead from 50 percent to 53.8 percent while his rivals' totals have declined.
When taking into account undecided voters, Pena Nieto has extended his lead over his two rivals by another percentage point going from 38.4 percent to 39.9 percent, while Vazquez Mota has lost ground from 21 percent to 18.8 percent. Lopez Orbador's position has improved slightly as well going from 12.8 percent at the start to 13.9 percent to date.
The biggest problem for PRI now is the second largest voting block in Mexico, the undecided voters making up 25.9 percent of the totals. While it is unlikely such a large, amorphous group will break for just one candidate, it does show that voters have yet to settle on PRI's return to Los Pinos, the Mexican president's official residence on July 1st. That reticence may show up later in legislative races. However, that is unlikely.
Previous statehouse victories in 2011 by PRI were accompanied by crushing wins in local chambers of deputies races, except in Michoacan state last November, where PRI failed to win a majority of the seats.
PRI's commanding leads in the polls show a tremendous ground game than none of their rivals have yet to effectively stop or even slow down.
PAN is showing all the signs of a political campaign imploding, starting with embarrassingly low turnouts to campaign events, slow, flat-footed responses to the coming crisis and an abject political tone-deafness in PAN leadership, both past and current.
PAN president Gustavo Madero Munoz himself announced last week his return to the senate seat he left just a little over one year ago, protesting he can be a Mexican senator, president of PAN and also help Vazquez Mota with her campaign.
So far, publicity stunts involving Madero himself have fallen short, including attack ads against Pena Nieto and an informal debate between himself and Vazquez Mota campaign director Roberto Gil Zuarth, and lower level PRI operatives. Instead of moving polls for PAN, his efforts have been counterproductive, costing Vazquez Mota in the polls.
Even the normally polite Mexican press has noticed, including a Durango writer who Saturday said that only a rising tide will help PAN, not moving the rudder.
Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news for Rantburg.com
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Fighting continues in Choix, Sinaloa: 12 die
2012-05-02
Posted by: badanov
For a map, click here
By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
The death toll in fighting between criminal groups and Mexican security forces in the Sierras of northeastern Sinaloa state increased to 32 as 12 more unidentified armed suspects were killed Monday, according to Mexican news accounts.
In a brief account on the website of Noreaste de Sinaloa, 10 suspects were killed near El Pichol and two more were killed near Bacayopa, which is closer to the Chihuahua state border. A reported additional two dead were reported in another area close to the border with Chihuahua state called Los Tascates.
Mexican Army and naval infantry forces have reportedly set up a cordon in the area to prevent armed groups from filtering back to the western side of Choix municipality. At least two naval infantry units were deployed near Chinobampo, which is south of Choix municipal seat to aid the Mexican federal security effort.
According to an article posted in its website Monday evening, El Debate news daily said the new count is based on coffins ordered by funeral homes in Choix municipality.
In a separate article on El Debate's website, Sinaloa governor Mario Lopez Valdez told reporters that security meetings are being held with the public security chiefs of nearby municipalities including Sinaloa de Leyva, San Ignacio, Concordia and Badiraguato. The newest security initiative has been dubbed Operacion Condor.
Operacion Condor is the name of a counternarcotics operation implemented during the 1970s in Sinaloa state aimed at drug eradication.
In the same report, Sinaloa state Secretearia de Gobernacion (SEGOB) Gerardo Vargas Landeros said that the area in eastern Choix municipality was under control of security forces. The problem now, according to the report, is armed groups moving to Chihuahua aboard vehicles falsely marked as official vehicles.
Three falsely marked vehicles have been found abandoned in San Vicente, Chihuahua, which is just across the border, suggesting some criminal elements have already passed over to seek refuge in Chihuahua state. The find also suggests that much of the fighting by armed groups have been delaying and diversionary in nature, presumably to allow a leadership element to escape security operations.
News reports say that armed suspects have been demanding food and water from local residents, and have passed easily through the military cordon to make those demands. Jose Carlos Urias Olguin, 42, was shot in the leg near his residence in the village of Potrero de Los Fierro after he refused to provide an armed suspect with food.
Reports of hostage taking by armed suspects have also been discounted, and appear to be anecdotal, though isolated incidents have occurred. Resident have also fled their homes, but officials have protested those actions are also not widespread.
Reports suggest that armed groups have recruited shooters from remote villages, presumably to reinforce their numbers in the area. The military has suspended normal transportation in the area, specifically to Casas Viejas and El Tablo, stranding some area residents.
Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news for Rantburg.com
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